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It’s hard to tell with any precision, but one reason stock markets have been unsettled is the apparent gulf between the Fed’s public rhetoric about starting “liftoff” soon, and the futures market’s implied forecast of only about a 30% chance of a September move. Investors seem not to like the sense that the Fed is determined to move in September regardless of fragile emerging economies and struggling equity markets. The International Monetary Fund and World Bank have both publicly urged the Fed to stand pat, based on concerns that a Fed rate hike would exacerbate credit and currency stress in the developing world.
Tilley – who was an economic advisor to the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia before joining Wilmington Trust this year – believes Fed Chair Janet Yellen and colleagues will ultimately move “once the members of the committee become confident that inflation is returning to their 2% goal.”
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